Key highlights

• Trump’s second term began on 20 January 2025, making 20 January 2026 a one-year marker. The White House+1
• Trade impact is not one headline—it’s a chain reaction: tariffs, supply chains, currency sentiment, and compliance costs.
• For India: the practical question is sector-by-sector—exports, IT services, pharma, and strategic manufacturing.

“One year of Trump second term” will trend because the one-year mark is a natural audit point: what changed in policy posture, and what did markets actually price in?

Official U.S. government pages reflect the new administration’s posture and actions early in 2025, and that anchors the timeline for the one-year anniversary on 20 January 2026. The White House+1

Here’s the sober framework to assess trade impacts without falling for hype:

• Tariff signals change corporate planning faster than final tariff rates.
• Supply chains move slowly, but once they move, they lock in for years.
• Compliance and screening (tech, data, exports) quietly becomes the real cost centre.

If you’re an Indian exporter or services operator, your best move is not prediction—it’s positioning:

• Diversify buyer geographies.
• Build documentation and compliance as a core capability.
• Track sector-specific policy notes (because “trade policy” rarely hits all industries equally).