MUMBAI, February 23, 2026 — The commodities market witnessed a historic “Manic Monday” as gold prices breached the monumental ₹1.60 lakh mark and silver surged by 6%. This massive rally, triggered by a combination of geopolitical brinkmanship and U.S. economic data, marks one of the most volatile trading sessions in recent history for the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

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The ₹1.60 Lakh Milestone

The safe-haven rush was instantaneous. MCX Gold April futures jumped by over ₹3,700—a 2.4% spike—to hit ₹1,60,600 per 10 grams. Silver outpaced gold’s percentage gains, with March futures soaring by nearly ₹15,200 to reach ₹2,68,120 per kg.

The rally was further lubricated by a 0.45% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index. As the “greenback” weakened to 97.36, bullion became significantly cheaper for international buyers, sparking a global buying spree that filtered directly into Indian markets.

Geopolitical Brinkmanship: The 10-Day Ultimatum

The primary engine behind the price explosion is the deteriorating relationship between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a high-stakes ultimatum, declaring that the U.S. must secure a “meaningful deal” with Iran immediately.

Trump emphasized that the coming 10 days will be the ultimate decider for regional stability. Adding to the tension, widespread student protests have erupted across major Iranian universities, signaling internal instability that often precedes broader conflict. Whenever the drums of war beat, investors traditionally dump equities and flee to the “ballast” of gold.

The “Tariff Uncertainty” Factor

Adding fuel to the fire is a renewed trade war sentiment. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down previous tariff measures under the International Economic Emergency Power Act, the Trump administration pivoted quickly, announcing a new 15% tariff on U.S. trading partners.

This policy shift, combined with cooling U.S. GDP growth—which fell to a 1.4% annual rate in Q4 from a high of 4.4% earlier in the year—has painted a picture of an economy losing steam, further cementing gold’s appeal as a defensive asset.

Expert Analysis: Buy the Dips?

Market veterans are bracing for a week of heavy turbulence. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart noted that while the trend is bullish, the reopening of Chinese markets after a week-long holiday will likely increase trading volumes and volatility.

Analysts have identified key psychological levels for traders:

• Gold Support: ₹1,54,400 | Resistance: ₹1,60,600
• Silver Support: ₹2,48,800 | Resistance: ₹2,63,660

The consensus among analysts like Jigar Trivedi of IndusInd Securities is that the trend remains firmly positive. For the average investor, the advice is clear: look for entries during temporary price retreats, as the global “fear gauge” shows no signs of cooling down.

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Bottom Line The era of “cheap” gold appears to be a distant memory. With a 10-day geopolitical clock ticking and a 15% tariff wall being built, the surge to ₹1.60 lakh isn’t just a number—it’s a reflection of a world bracing for impact.