Key highlights

• The dollar still dominates where it matters most: FX trading and a large share of official reserves, as tracked by authoritative global datasets. IMF Data+1
• “De-dollarization” is real in small ways (diversification at the edges), but the core system behaves like a network: it moves slowly. IMF Data+1
• The practical 2026 insight: the world can diversify without dethroning the dollar.

What the official data actually shows

Two clean lenses:

1. Official reserves composition: IMF’s COFER dataset tracks currency composition of global reserves (where reported). IMF Data
2. FX market usage: BIS triennial survey shows the dollar’s outsized role in FX turnover—meaning most currency trades touch USD on one side. OPEC

If a currency is the “plumbing” for transactions and hedging, it stays dominant even if trade invoicing shifts a little.

Why dominance persists: the boring reasons that matter

• deepest government bond market
• largest hedging ecosystem
• commodity pricing conventions
• crisis behavior (flight to liquidity)

This isn’t ideology. It’s operational convenience.

What “real de-dollarization” would look like

People ask:
“If countries want out, why can’t they just switch?”

Because switching requires:

• deep alternative safe assets,
• liquid derivatives markets,
• trusted settlement rails,
• and willingness to hold another power’s liabilities at scale.

That’s a tall order.

Small questions people search

Is the dollar share falling?
COFER can show gradual diversification trends in reserves, but that doesn’t automatically translate into dollar collapse. IMF Data

Can trade happen without dollars?
Yes—some trade can. But hedging, financing, and global liquidity often still route through USD. OPEC

2026 takeaway for businesses and investors

• Hedge currency risk like dominance continues—because it likely does.
• Watch diversification as a risk management trend, not a revolution headline.
• The bigger threat is not “no dollar,” it’s dollar volatility.

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